Gap-down open tests SPY put wall as hawkish Fed minutes weigh on tech

All three major ETFs are opening lower Thursday morning, with SPY gapping down 0.42% to 765.85, QQQ off 0.56% to 712.06, and IWM leading losses at -0.72% to 299.56 versus Wednesday's closing levels. The overnight futures picture adds context: /NQ is sitting near the bottom of its globex range at a -8% range position despite a modest late rally, signaling that tech bulls have yet to reclaim control heading into the bell.

Walmart reports earnings before the open — the session's highest-impact catalyst — and Fed minutes released Wednesday leaned hawkish per news flow, adding pressure to rate-sensitive sectors. With SPY pre-market last of 765.85 sitting just 85 cents above the 765 put wall and QQQ already trading below its 715 put wall, the structural message from the options market is clear: the path of least resistance points lower unless early buyers defend key gamma levels at the open.