QQQ flips bullish, SPY grinds toward 780 wall, IWM stalls at structure

GAMMA BRIEF AI Generated 2026-08-13

Thursday's session delivered a strong reversal from the pre-market narrative: QQQ — flagged bearish this morning — surged +1.13% to 731.85, tagging a session high of 733.75, while SPY broke cleanly above the 775 call wall and is now pressing toward the 780 level. Gold is selling off hard at -1.18%, reinforcing the risk-on tone, with equities getting a further lift from a cooler-than-expected Producer Price Index print.

The real story is the 0DTE flow divergence: a pair of bearish SPX put sweeps totaling $129M landed in the first 40 minutes of trading at the 7800-7810 strikes — right where the market opened — yet price has climbed through that zone and is holding above it at midday. When bearish 0DTE bets of that size fail to suppress price, the implication is a tape with genuine bid underneath it, not a head-fake rally.

Dealer positioning shows a clear regime shift as options market makers adjust hedges across the curve. The put-call skew has compressed significantly, suggesting institutional players are reducing downside protection.

Watch the key level closely at open — it sits exactly at the intersection of the GEX zero line and overnight VWAP. A clean break above opens the path to the call wall; rejection sends us back toward the put wall.

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GEX Walls — Options Positioning

SPX CHOP

Call Wall 7800

Put Wall 7750

Max Pain 7560

Net GEX +$75.5B

SPY CHOP

Call Wall 780

Put Wall 770

Max Pain 758

Net GEX +$17.9B

QQQ BULLISH

Call Wall 735

Put Wall 700

Max Pain 703

Net GEX +$8.6B

IWM CHOP

Call Wall 304

Put Wall 295

Max Pain 295

Net GEX +$0.6B

ⓘ Trend Bias vs Directional Call

The badge shows momentum bias — where price sits relative to VWAP and moving averages right now. The brief's directional call weighs GEX structure, options flow, and macro signals, and may point the opposite direction when a rally runs into a call wall or flow turns bearish.

GEX walls are a snapshot from brief generation — not a live feed.

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GEX walls are price levels where dealers hedge aggressively. Price tends to gravitate toward Max Pain and stall near walls.

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Unusual Options Activity

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Facts — Draw Your Own Conclusions

→DETERMINISTIC: SPY net GEX +$17.88B; call wall 780.0, put wall 770.0, max pain 758.0.

→DETERMINISTIC: QQQ net GEX +$8.61B; call wall 735.0, put wall 700.0; session high 733.75 is 1.25 below call wall per pre-computed distances.

→DETERMINISTIC: IWM net GEX +$0.60B; call wall 304.0; last 303.20 is 0.80 below call wall; put wall and max pain both at 295.0.

→DETERMINISTIC: SPX bearish 0DTE put sweeps — 7800 strike $78M at 09:02 (vol/OI 93.1x) + 7810 strike $51M and 7805 strike $51M at 09:39 (vol/OI 515.8x / 437.4x) — total $180M bearish 0DTE flow at the open.

→DETERMINISTIC: VIX 14.70 (+1.03%), VVIX 90.18 (+0.21%); SPY 0DTE volume at 70.7% of total.

→DETERMINISTIC: QQQ trend bias BULLISH (score 23, confidence 32%) — above VWAP 731.43; SPY and IWM both CHOP.

→DETERMINISTIC: GLD -1.18% vs SPY +0.52% — gold selling as equities advance; PPI described as cooler-than-expected per news headlines.

→SYNTHESIS: $180M in bearish 0DTE SPX put flow at 7800-7810 strikes (placed at open per UOA timestamps) has failed to suppress price — SPY at 776.54 and QQQ trend bias flipping to BULLISH (score 23) together indicate the tape absorbed and rejected that defensive positioning.

Objective data only. No interpretation. Form your own view.

Key Themes

Failed bearish 0DTE SPX put flow — $180M absorbed with price climbingQQQ morning fade call invalidated — tape flipped BULLISH trend biasSPY and QQQ grinding toward call walls (780 / 735) under elevated 0DTE gamma compressionRisk-on confirmation: GLD -1.18% vs SPY +0.52% on cooler PPI

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Directional Calls

SPY BULLISH

QQQ BULLISH

IWM NEUTRAL