Thesis PARTIALLY invalidated: SPY reclaimed 730.0 at open and trades 733.6, weakening bearish-extension case; QQQ fails harder, IWM outperforms as predicted.

Dealer positioning shows a clear regime shift as options market makers adjust hedges across the curve. The put-call skew has compressed significantly, suggesting institutional players are reducing downside protection.

Watch the key level closely at open — it sits exactly at the intersection of the GEX zero line and overnight VWAP. A clean break above opens the path to the call wall; rejection sends us back toward the put wall.